Missouri Could Owe $150 Million for SNAP Errors Starting in 2027 — Here’s Why
Missouri will have to cover 10% of its federal food-assistance costs — roughly $150 million — starting in 2027 unless it lowers its SNAP payment error rate below 6%. The state’s error rate has been improving, but it’s still well above the new federal threshold that determines how much states must pay.
What’s Happening
According to data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and reported by the Missouri Independent, Missouri’s SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) payment error rate for federal fiscal year 2025 was 8.67%. That’s an improvement from 9.42% in fiscal year 2024 and 10.54% in fiscal year 2023 — but it’s still above the 6% threshold that triggers a new cost-sharing requirement under federal law.
Because of that gap, Missouri is projected to be on the hook for about $150 million — roughly 10% of the federal nutrition assistance it distributes — once the new rule takes effect on October 1, 2027.
Why This Is a New Kind of Cost for States
SNAP has historically been funded 100% by the federal government, with states covering only administrative costs. That changes under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed by Congress in July 2025, which for the first time requires states with payment error rates above 6% to fund between 5% and 15% of the actual benefits paid out through SNAP, on a sliding scale tied to how far above 6% their error rate sits.
This will be the first time in the program’s history that federal funds won’t cover 100% of the benefits a state issues. For Missouri, an 8.67% error rate lands it at the higher end of that sliding scale — hence the roughly 10% (about $150 million) exposure cited in the report.
Importantly, the specific dollar figure that applies starting in 2027 will be based on Missouri’s error rate for federal fiscal year 2026 — which runs through September of that year — not the 8.67% figure from fiscal year 2025. Missouri Department of Social Services spokesperson Baylee Watts confirmed that any state cost-share owed in 2027 depends on the still-unreleased 2026 error rate. The USDA won’t publish that data until June 2027, meaning Missouri lawmakers will have to write next year’s state budget without knowing their actual exposure.
Budgeting in the Dark
Christine Woody, food security policy manager for Empower Missouri, told the Missouri Independent that lawmakers can’t simply ignore the risk while waiting for final numbers:
“We can’t just hope that it’s going to be a 0% cost share and just not put anything in the budget and then be hit with a $150 million price tag after the fact.”
Missouri lawmakers have already taken one budgetary step related to this law: in May, they approved an additional $29.3 million in general revenue to cover the state’s increased share of SNAP administrative costs (a separate, smaller cost increase also required by the same federal law), effective October 1.
What’s Driving Missouri’s Error Rate
SNAP payment error rates measure the accuracy of benefit payments — including both overpayments and underpayments to households — and are separate from fraud. Missouri’s error rate has trended downward for two consecutive years, which the Department of Social Services attributes to “ongoing efforts to strengthen eligibility determination and program administration.”
| Fiscal Year | Missouri SNAP Error Rate |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 10.54% |
| 2024 | 9.42% |
| 2025 | 8.67% |
| 2026 | Not yet released (data expected June 2027) |
Even with that improvement, Missouri remains well above the 6% threshold, and the trend would need to continue for several more years to get the state out of cost-share territory entirely.
The Tradeoff: Accuracy vs. Access
Reducing error rates isn’t free, and it isn’t just a paperwork exercise — advocates warn it can directly affect how easy it is for eligible households to get and keep benefits.
Katherine Holley, a senior attorney with Legal Services of Eastern Missouri who helps clients with public benefit applications, said the push for lower error rates risks translating into more documentation demands that some applicants simply can’t meet. She described a client exempt from SNAP work requirements because they care for a disabled family member — a situation federal law generally allows to be confirmed by self-attestation, but where the department requested a doctor’s letter instead.
“If that’s a friend or neighbor, that’s a very high bar to verify,” Holley said. “And then if they aren’t able to get that one specific piece of paper that’s requested, they lose their benefits. Then they’re subject to the work requirement, and they have to work, not care for this person.”
Woody echoed the concern, saying the new federal cost-share rules could incentivize states to “add more roadblocks and administrative hurdles for people accessing the program” — even though the error rate measurement itself counts underpayments (benefits mistakenly denied or reduced) just as much as overpayments.
Enrollment Has Already Dropped
The number of Missourians receiving SNAP benefits has fallen by more than 45,000 people since October 2025 — shortly after the state implemented expanded SNAP work requirements and narrower eligibility rules for refugees and asylum seekers. Holley noted that as verification demands increase, department staff have less time to help eligible residents navigate the process, which can compound the enrollment decline independent of any change in underlying eligibility.
Is There a Way Out? The Farm Bill
Missouri isn’t alone in facing this exposure, and there’s an active push in Congress to delay it. In January, state and county officials nationwide — including the National Governors Association and the National Association of Counties — sent a letter to congressional leaders urging a delay of the SNAP cost-share start date to October 2029, citing the disruption caused by a 43-day federal government shutdown in addition to the new error-rate policy. Their letter warned that “the compounding effects of these developments could put SNAP in jeopardy across the country if states and counties do not receive some form of relief.”
Congressional Democrats have pushed to postpone the SNAP error-rate penalties as part of the farm bill — the large agriculture and nutrition policy bill Congress typically renews every five years. As of the most recent House-passed version (April) and the Senate’s draft (released the week of this report), that postponement has not been included. Woody said advocates haven’t given up: “The farm bill is the best hope for that.”
What This Means If You Receive SNAP in Missouri
Nothing about individual SNAP benefit amounts is changing as a direct result of this report. The cost-share requirement is a state budget matter — it determines how much of the total benefit pool Missouri itself has to fund starting in October 2027, not whether any individual household’s monthly benefit changes. That said, if the state pursues more aggressive error-reduction measures (like stricter documentation checks) to avoid the cost-share hit, applicants and recipients could see longer processing times or more requests for paperwork in the next couple of budget cycles.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Missouri’s current SNAP error rate?
8.67% for federal fiscal year 2025, down from 9.42% in 2024 and 10.54% in 2023 — but still above the 6% threshold that triggers a cost-share requirement.
When does Missouri start paying a share of SNAP benefits?
October 1, 2027, based on the state’s error rate for federal fiscal year 2026 (data not yet released as of this report).
Does this affect how much I get in SNAP benefits?
Not directly. This is a state-federal cost-sharing change, not a change to individual benefit formulas. However, state efforts to lower error rates could affect verification and processing requirements.
Could the $150 million estimate change?
Yes — it’s based on the 2025 error rate as an illustrative figure. The actual amount Missouri owes will be calculated using the 2026 fiscal year error rate, not yet released.
Is there a chance this gets delayed?
Advocacy groups and some members of Congress have pushed to delay the cost-share start date via the farm bill, but as of the most recent legislative drafts, no delay has been enacted.
*Source: Warren County Record, citing USDA data and reporting from the Missouri Independent.*